Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Hindi Heartland vs Deep South - Math For BJP vs The Rest | Explained

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Notably, the BJP exhibits a higher success rate in retaining governments compared to the Congress. The saffron party is in power in 12 of the 28 states. On the other hand, the Congress is limited to three states - Telangana, Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.
Modi mask_BJP.

Lok Sabha elections 2024: Since PM Modi-led government first came to power in the Centre in 2014, the party has formed governments in 12 states.

From just two seats in the 1984 national elections to winning 303 seats in the 2019 elections, the Bhartiya Janata Party, or the BJP, has emerged as a dominant player in India, mostly at the expense of the Congress party which was once an undisputed political force. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led party is expected to repeat its 2019 feat in several Hindi heartland states, including the politically-significant state of UP, according to opinion polls. The Congress, meanwhile, is emerging as a favoured alternative in the South.
With the recent victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP now accounts for almost half of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. Although the Congress won Telangana, the outcome is seen as a setback.
"We always said we would win the heartland states. The results are the outcome of our finest political strategy and work on the ground," BJP President JP Nadda told news agency Reuters last year, after the state elections results.
For the Congress, the Rahul Gandhi-led 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra' is unlikely to bring dividends.
A recent survey conducted by Matrize NC has predicted a resounding victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the national elections, with predictions pointing towards the coalition securing a formidable 366 seats in the Lok Sabha. This forecast underscores the NDA's commanding lead over its closest competitor, the Congress-led INDIA Bloc, which is anticipated to secure 104 seats. Moreover, the survey suggests that other parties will clinch 73 seats in the Lok Sabha.
In its quest to meet the target of 400 seats for NDA, the BJP, keeping anti-incumbency in mind, and the feedback the party has got from the ground, dropped a total of 63 MPs, showing door to nearly 23 per cent of its sitting MPs. The party has also formed new alliances - including with Nitish Kumar in Bihar.
BJP's Rise Under PM Modi
Since PM Modi-led government first came to power in the Centre in 2014, the party has formed governments in 12 states, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Goa and Chhattisgarh, and is in the ruling coalition in four others comprising 69 per cent of the population - it recently re-established its dominance in the Hindi heartland as it renewed its alliance with Janta Dal (United)'s Nitish Kumar in Bihar.
The Opposition-ruled states covered a meagre 22 per cent of land area with 31 per cent of the population, according to an India Today report.
UP To Play Pivotal Role For BJP
Uttar Pradesh is likely to emerge as a pivotal state in shaping the BJP's anticipated electoral triumph, with the BJP projected to win a staggering 77 out of the total 80 seats in the state, according to Matrize NC survey. The projected seats surpasses its 2019 tally and further consolidate its position in the state and nationwide.
Modi_Ram temple
Prime Minister Narendra Modi performed the rituals as the lead devotee at the Ram Temple in Ayodhya - a 30-year-promise of the BJP and one realised less than three months before the general election.
The party has invoked the Ram Temple and highlighted the works undertaken by his government to develop the places of religious importance in as key highlight in the state. The BJP is projected to have a strike rate of 92% in 2024, higher than its 2019 strike rate of 89.4% in the same region.
The Congress, which has joined hands with Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, is yet to finalise candidates in Rae Bareli and Amethi.
Mamata Banerjee To Halt BJP In Bengal
The Materize survey has projected a resounding victory for Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. Mamata Banerjee, who has decided to go solo in Bengal, is likely to secure 26 out of the total 42 seats, positioning her for yet another term as the Chief Minister of the state.
How Nitish Kumar's Return May Boost NDA's Prospects
With Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar flip-flopping his way back to the BJP- led NDA only a year and half after he had quit, the BJP sees better winnability in the state which sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, the BJP won 17 seats, the JD(U) won 16, and the RJD won none (despite a sizeable vote share of over 15%).
This time, the BJP-led NDA is poised to win 35 seats out of 40 in Bihar in the Lok Sabha Elections.
In the Opposition INDIA bloc, the Rashtriya Janata Dal will contest 26 seats while the Congress will field candidates in nine seats. The Left parties will contest on five seats, as per the arrangement finalised.
How Ajit Pawar And Eknath Shinde May Help BJP In Maharashtra
The National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, has reportedly finalised its seat-sharing arrangement in Maharashtra, with the BJP setting to contest on 26 seats in the state. The seat-sharing arrangement includes 12-14 seats to the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and 5 seats to Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), according to media reports.
Amit Shah and Eknath Shinde
According to a recent survey conducted by ETG Research, the BJP is projected to win between 27 to 31 seats out of the total 48 seats.
Bollywood actor Govinda has made a political comeback, this time as a NDA candidate. The 60-year-old actor - who emerged as 'Giant killer' after defeating senior BJP leader Ram Naik in the 2004 elections - has joined the ruling Shiv Sena. "I am back (in politics) after a 14-year-long 'vanvas' (exile)," Govinda remarked after joining the Shiv Sena.
According to a recent survey conducted by ETG Research, the BJP is projected to win between 27 to 31 seats out of the total 48 seats. The survey also suggests a potential resurgence of the Shiv Sena's Uddhav Thackeray faction, projecting them to secure 7 to 9 seats. Meanwhile, the Shinde faction (led by CM Eknath Shinde) is expected to secure 4-6 seats, as per the survey.
"PM Modi's Popularity Growing Day By Day In The South"
In the South, where the BJP has been a marginal player, the survey by Matrize NC has projected 22 Lok Sabha seats, 21 of them from Karnataka, BJP's only stronghold in the region.
Asked if South India will be a challenge for BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, Union Minister Piyush Goyal said the region is seeing resurgence of the BJP.
"BJP, after so many years, has a very strong leader in Tamil Nadu, K. Annamalai. I myself participated in a lot of his programs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity is growing day by day in Tamil Nadu. Kerala is fed up with the government of the Left and Congress-led UDF as they have done nothing for Kerala. I see a resurgence in South India for the BJP," he said.
Congress’s Reversal In Electoral Fortunes
The BJP's rise in the South has largely been in the expense of the Congress. In Telangana, the BJP is expected to win five seats, according to a survey. The ruling Congress, despite its victory in recent state polls, is projected to win nine seats while the BRS, which had been ruling the state since its formation, is expected to win two seats. Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM may win one Lok Sabha seat, per survey.
Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu And Kerala Still Out Of Reach For BJP?
The BJP is expected to have a poor show in Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, with the survey predicting the party will fail to open account in the two states.
In Andhra Pradesh, the party has joined an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party and Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena Party in Andhra Pradesh. As part of the alliance deal, the BJP has been allotted six of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The names of four Lok Sabha candidates has sparked discontent in within the state unit, especially those with RSS association.
In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the BJP has fielded state BJP chief Annamalai (from Coimbatore), and former union miniser Pon Radhakrishnan (Kanniyakumari) for the polls. Former Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan has been given ticket from Chennai South and Union Minister L Murugan from Nilgiris.
Notably, Annamali has been working aggressively to bring an electoral turnaround for his party in the southern state ever since he took over as state BJP chief in 2021. Annamalai will take on DMK's Ganapathi P Rajkumar and AIADMK's Singai G Ramachandran.
In Kerala, the BJP has fielded two Union Ministers - Rajeev Chandrasekhar and V. Muralidharan, and renominated actor Suresh Gopi, as it tries to open account in the state. The state has seen PM Modi holding rallies for the party. Anil Antony, the son of former Defence Minister and Congress leader AK Antony, has also been given ticket in Pathanamthitta. BJP state chief K Surendran, who has challenged Congress MP Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, has also been fielded again.
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