Will Allan Lichtman Get It Right This Time? Here's Historian's Latest Comments On US Elections

Lichtman has been using a survey called the 'Keys to the White House,' which he developed in 1981 along with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It is based on the analysis of US presidential elections since 1860. He says even though the impact of the hush money conviction of Donald Trump on the elections is too early to call, it will not fundamentally crack the presumptive Republican nominee's chances.
Allan Lichtman

(Photo: X)

Allan Lichtman has made a name for himself for predicting US presidential elections over the years. The Washington DC-based American University professor who is as old as Donald Trump, has accurately predicted nine out of the last 10 presidential elections correctly. And who better to speculate on the November 2024 contest, if not Lichtman himself?
The veteran historian spoke to Fox News Digital in a recent interview where he discussed Trump and Biden's prospects in the 2024 elections.
Lichtman has been using a survey called the 'Keys to the White House,' which he developed in 1981 along with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It based on the analysis of US presidential elections since 1860. He says even though the impact of the hush money conviction of Donald Trump on the elections is too early to call, it will not fundamentally crack the presumptive Republican nominee's chances.
"We're not going to know much until the sentencing hearing on July 11, right before the Republican convention," he told Fox New Digital.
“We do have an unprecedented situation right now. We’ve never before had a former president, or, for that matter, a major party presidential candidate, even charged with a crime, much less convicted of 34 felonies."
However, he explained that even though the situation is significant in the history of the nation, he believes that his survey will not be affected by it. He warned that it is not known how swing and moderate independent voters will be affected by it, adding that it is important now to look "over time and not rely on instant, unreliable punditry."
"The keys are an alternative to the polls, which are not predictors," he said. "They're snapshots, they're abused, not used as predictors. And the pundits, you know, who are a lot of fun, but they're sports talk radio. They have no scientific basis for any of their predictions."
Notably, the only elections among the last 10 that Lichtman got wrong was George W Bush's victory over Al Gore in 2000.
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